What Makes The Current US Shutdown Distinct (and More Intractable)?
Government closures are a repeat element of US politics – however the current situation appears especially difficult to resolve due to political dynamics along with deep-seated animosity between the two parties.
Certain federal operations are temporarily suspended, with approximately 750,000 people are expected to be put on furlough without pay since Republicans and Democrats remain unable to reach consensus regarding budget legislation.
Votes aimed at ending the impasse continue to fall short, and it is hard to see an off-ramp this time because both parties – including the President – perceive advantages in digging in.
These are several key factors that make this shutdown distinct currently.
1. For Democrats, the focus is on Trump – not just healthcare
Democratic supporters has been demanding for months that their party adopt stronger opposition against the Trump administration. Well now the party leadership have an opportunity to show their responsiveness.
In March, Senate leader faced strong criticism for helping pass GOP budget legislation and averting a shutdown in the spring. This time he's digging in.
This is a chance for Democrats to show they can take back certain authority from an administration pursuing its agenda assertively on its agenda.
Refusing to back the GOP budget proposal carries electoral dangers that the wider public may become impatient as the dispute drags on and impacts accumulate.
Democratic representatives are leveraging the budget standoff to highlight concerns about expiring health insurance subsidies and Republican-approved government healthcare cuts for the poor, which are both unpopular.
They are also trying to curtail executive utilization of presidential authority to cancel or delay funding authorized legislatively, a practice demonstrated in international assistance and other programmes.
Second, For Republicans, they see potential
The administration leader and one of his key officials have openly indicated their perspective that they perceive an opening to advance further the cutbacks to the federal workforce that have featured in the Republican's second presidency to date.
The President himself said last week that the government closure provided him with an "unprecedented opportunity", adding he intended to reduce funding for "Democrat agencies".
The White House stated they would face the "unenviable task" of mass lay-offs to maintain critical federal operations should the impasse persist. The Press Secretary described this as "fiscal sanity".
The scope of the potential lay-offs is still uncertain, but the White House have been consulting with the Office of Management and Budget, the budgeting office, under the leadership of the administration's budget director.
The administration's financial chief has previously declared the suspension of federal funding for regions governed by of the country, including New York City and Chicago.
Third, Trust Is Lacking on either side
While previous shutdowns have been characterised by extended negotiations between the two parties aimed at restoring government services running again, currently there seems minimal cooperative willingness for compromise presently.
Conversely, there is rancour. Political tensions persisted recently, with Republicans and Democrats exchanging accusations regarding the deadlock's origin.
The legislative leader from the majority party, accused Democrats with insufficient commitment about negotiating, and holding out during discussions "for electoral protection".
Meanwhile, the opposition's chief made similar charges at the other side, saying that a majority party commitment regarding health funding talks after operations resume can not be taken seriously.
The administration leader personally has escalated tensions through sharing a computer-created controversial depiction featuring the opposition leader and the top Democrat in the House, where the legislator is depicted with traditional headwear and facial hair.
The representative with party colleagues denounced this as discriminatory, which was denied by the administration's second-in-command.
Fourth, The American Economy faces vulnerability
Analysts expect approximately two-fifths of government employees – more than 800,000 people – to face furlough as a result of the government closure.
That will depress spending – with broader economic consequences, as environmental permitting, patent approvals, payments to contractors and other kinds of federal operations tied to business cease functioning.
The closure additionally introduces fresh instability into an economy already being roiled by changes ranging from tariffs, earlier cuts to government spending, enforcement actions and technological advancements.
Analysts estimate that it could shave as much as 0.2 percentage points from national economic expansion for each week it lasts.
But the economy typically recoups most of that lost activity following resolution, similar to recovery patterns after major environmental events.
That could be one reason why financial markets has appeared largely unfazed to the ongoing impasse.
On the other hand, experts indicate that if the President carries out his threat of mass firings, the damage could be more long-lasting.